2009 Average Draft Position

Going into a draft a familiarity with Average Draft Position (ADP) is critical to success in any fantasy sport, but especially in fantasy baseball.  The myriad of positions, size of the rosters, and the need to draft both a pitching and hitting team leads to more draft nuances than you find in fantasy football.  Not only do you need to know who you are targeting, but you also need to know how long you can wait before you take the guys you are targetting.  ADP mistakes are the most egregious and costly mistakes that unprepared drafters make.

The best place to find ADP this early in the fantasy baseball season is MockDraftCentral.com.  With a free account you can access their top 75 ADP.  With a premium account you can access their entire ADP.  The chart at the bottom of this article is part of their free offering, the top 70 in their ADP list.  It shows both the earliest the player has been taken and the latest.  A player taken much higher than his ADP suggests bad value because that player most likely could have been acquired later.  A player taken far after their ADP implies strong value.

We can see some direct examples of the kind of egregious errors I’m talking about in the chart below.  Take a look at Alfonso Soriano.  Someone drafting 6th used their first round pick to get Soriano.  This person had the 6th, 19th, and 30th picks.  Soriano’s ADP is 23.64, making him the 22nd player off the board on average.  That gives someone drafting 19th a very strong chance to get him.  This drafter could have used his first pick on a Grady Sizemore or Miguel Cabrera and then taken Soriano in round 2.  Sizemore and Soriano would have been a nice top two.  Instead, this player is looking at Soriano and Justin Morneau (19 ADP).

Seasoned players are going to avoid such egregious ADP errors, but they do need to consider probabilities based on ADP with every pick.  As you can see from the degree of difference in the “Latest” column compared to actual ADP, players often fall significantly further than expected.  Also, Position Runs and tendencies of your opponents can really shake up ADP in any individual draft.  Each drafter should keep all of this in mind as they determine how likely it is a player they are targeting will still be available at their next pick.  You can never be sure your guy will still be around, but it is often worth the risk to wait.  The draft is the single most important day in your season so you have to maximize each pick as best you can.  Study all the ADP charts as they are released and you will have a leg up on the competition come draft day.

From MockDraftCentral.com:

Player Pos Team ADP Earliest Latest Draft %
1) Hanley Ramirez SS FLA 1.35 1 4 100.0%

2) Alex Rodriguez 3B NYY 2.11 1 5 100.0%

3) Albert Pujols 1B STL 3.07 1 7 100.0%

4) David Wright 3B NYM 4.42 1 7 100.0%

5) Jose Reyes SS NYM 4.62 2 10 100.0%

6) Grady Sizemore OF CLE 6.63 3 14 100.0%

7) Miguel Cabrera 1B DET 7.22 4 16 100.0%

8) Jimmy Rollins SS PHI 9.46 6 18 100.0%

9) Josh Hamilton OF TEX 10.51 4 19 100.0%

10) Ryan Braun OF MIL 10.76 4 19 100.0%

11) Ian Kinsler 2B TEX 11.10 6 20 100.0%

12) Ryan Howard 1B PHI 11.52 3 20 100.0%

13) Matt Holliday OF OAK 12.66 6 21 100.0%

14) Mark Teixeira 1B NYY 13.42 5 20 100.0%

15) Lance Berkman 1B HOU 15.55 10 26 100.0%

16) Johan Santana SP NYM 18.75 7 33 100.0%

17) B.J. Upton OF TB 19.31 12 38 100.0%

18) Chase Utley 2B PHI 19.67 6 33 100.0%

19) Justin Morneau 1B MIN 19.98 13 39 100.0%

20) Evan Longoria 3B TB 20.01 10 32 100.0%

21) Manny Ramirez OF LA 20.93 10 36 100.0%

22) Alfonso Soriano OF CHC 23.64 6 37 100.0%

23) Carlos Beltran OF NYM 24.13 13 36 100.0%

24) Prince Fielder 1B MIL 24.26 13 38 100.0%

25) Ichiro Suzuki OF SEA 25.10 14 48 100.0%

26) Carlos Lee OF HOU 26.38 11 41 100.0%

27) Dustin Pedroia 2B BOS 26.91 10 42 100.0%

28) Tim Lincecum SP SF 27.40 10 62 100.0%

29) Carl Crawford OF TB 28.29 16 54 100.0%

30) Brandon Phillips 2B CIN 29.07 15 55 100.0%

31) Aramis Ramirez 3B CHC 31.03 16 50 100.0%

32) CC Sabathia SP NYY 34.18 17 47 100.0%

33) Jason Bay OF BOS 34.54 23 51 100.0%

34) Nick Markakis OF BAL 34.67 23 57 100.0%

35) Adrian Gonzalez 1B SD 35.31 23 53 100.0%

36) Carlos Quentin OF CHW 37.30 21 56 100.0%

37) Brian Roberts 2B BAL 38.11 27 58 100.0%

38) Kevin Youkilis 1B,3B BOS 38.34 22 57 100.0%

39) Alex Rios OF TOR 39.69 26 60 100.0%

40) Vladimir Guerrero OF ANA 40.55 25 59 100.0%

41) Matt Kemp OF LA 40.90 24 58 100.0%

42) Cole Hamels SP PHI 41.21 26 60 100.0%

43) Russell Martin C LA 43.63 26 68 100.0%

44) Jake Peavy SP SD 44.60 29 62 100.0%

45) Brandon Webb SP ARI 46.15 26 63 100.0%

46) Brian McCann C ATL 47.74 25 63 100.0%

47) Roy Halladay SP TOR 48.11 25 94 100.0%

48) Curtis Granderson OF DET 49.40 29 78 100.0%

49) Chipper Jones 3B ATL 50.53 32 71 100.0%

50) David Ortiz DH BOS 50.97 32 200 100.0%

51) Shane Victorino OF PHI 51.17 32 90 100.0%

52) Alexei Ramirez 2B CHW 51.51 29 69 100.0%

53) Joe Mauer C MIN 52.53 31 76 100.0%

54) Jonathan Papelbon RP BOS 54.81 34 85 100.0%

55) Corey Hart OF MIL 55.69 41 99 100.0%

56) Dan Haren SP ARI 57.55 39 72 100.0%

57) Nate McLouth OF PIT 59.24 31 104 100.0%

58) Brad Lidge RP PHI 61.37 46 94 100.0%

59) Rafael Furcal SS LA 62.30 37 94 100.0%

60) Magglio Ordonez OF DET 62.59 38 96 100.0%

61) Bobby Abreu OF NYY 62.91 36 100 100.0%

62) Adam Dunn OF ARI 62.99 42 100 100.0%

63) Jacoby Ellsbury OF BOS 63.10 39 99 100.0%

64) Dan Uggla 2B FLA 63.17 29 106 100.0%

65) Carlos Pena 1B TB 65.10 39 119 100.0%

66) Geovany Soto C CHC 66.48 38 94 100.0%

67) Cliff Lee SP CLE 67.78 41 118 100.0%

68) Derrek Lee 1B CHC 72.04 40 109 100.0%

69) Garrett Atkins 3B,1B COL 72.18 46 108 100.0%

70) Josh Beckett SP BOS 72.44 47 100 100.0%

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