2009 Fantasy Baseball

Daily and Weekly fantasy game sites are popping up all over the web. These sites often work like online poker sites – they let you deposit money into an account and then hop right into pay leagues. We are getting close to the day where you can grind fantasy football leagues just like you grind Sit N Gos. Just like in poker, these daily game sites often offer Fantasy Bonus Codes to help get you in the door. The Fantasy Promo Code blog will keep you abreast of the latest fantasy news.

Fantasy Football draft preparation season is now rolling in full force. Just do a search for fantasy football on Twitter to see what I mean. The Cheat Sheet for Fantasy Football blog will point you in the direction of some of the best rankings lists on the web. They have information on both premium and free cheat sheets. Speaking of free, the free fantasy football blog is also a nice source of information for those of you who don’t want to spend too much money on your favorite hobby. Check it out for lots of cost cutting tips.

The Fantasy Football Mock Draft blog is also a great free resource. I can’t say enough about how mock drafting helps your fantasy football results. The draft is by far the single most important event in a fantasy football season. If you’ve ever accidentally missed a draft you know exactly how bad it can be to manage a weak team. Don’t be unprepared heading into draft day. Check out this site and search other mock drafts around the web. You can even participate in mock drafts on a variety of sites.

The last blog of note is about sleepers in fantasy football. The right sleeper picks can make or break your season. Check out this blog to see who the best sleepers are for 2009.

Holy Blog Posts Batman! Lots of new blogs going up. Check out blogs of the future here: 2010 fantasy baseball and 2012 fantasy football. These blogs won’t be updated until their applicable year, but its always good to get them started early. In teh meantime check out CBS Fantasy Sports for current coverage.

A couple of niche blogs went up as well. The Auction Fantasy Football blog will focus on helping those interested in getting started in auction leagues. Managers are starting to realize that the auction is the most skillful form of choosing a team and veteran owners are migrating in that direction. College Fantasy Football Player Rankings is a blog that will take a close look at player rankings throughout the web. Fantasy Football Team Names blog will hlep you determine the perfect team name for the most important fantasy season of all.

Two more blogs focus on the fantasy basics – scoring and rules. The Fantasy Football Rules blog will discuss different league styles – for example, should you go with a free for all waiver system or a more skillful blind bidding system? The fantasy football scoring blog will do the same, but with scoring options. Flex? Performance? PPR? Check out that blog for some interesting scoring options.

We’re making some new fantasy football and baseball blogs to cover some well-searched fantasy topics. The ones mentioned in this blog mainly deal more with football than baseball, but should still turn into interesting resources.  If you see any fantasy player rankings, mock drafts, or podcasts that we should be including in the sites below just leave a comment on those sites to let us know.

The number of fantasy podcasts has been growing recently as sites realize the value of adding another media option.  ESPN’s Fantasy Focus has always been the leader, but other options are gaining steam.  RotoExperts offers all day fantasy coverage through Blog Talk Radio for the true fantasy diehards.  The iTunes top 100 Sports podcasts feature four fantasy related shows.  For more info on these podcasts visit www.fantasypodcasts.com.

In the same vein, we made another blog to track fantasy football player rankings posted around the web.  Browsing through and comparing fantasy rankings is a lot of fun, but can be tedious if you have to search them out yourself.  www.FantasyFootballPlayerRankings.net does the searching for you.  Check it out to easily browse through rankings from different football sites.  We did the same thing for any good fantasy football mock draft we find.  There’s more out there besides MockDraftCentral. 

We also put up 2010 fantasy football, 2010 fantasy baseball, and 2011 fantasy football related sites just to have an early start, lol.  I don’t know what we could possibly put on those sites right now that would be worthwhile, but when we figure something out it’s going up! We are ridiculous.

There are a few articles and pages that I’ve read that really stick out in my mind as I think about my upcoming drafts. I’ve listed them below. I think they are particularly helpful for completely preparing you for your drafts. These are good articles to read after you’ve done your own initial research and reading.

2009 Draft Theories from RotoSavants – Troy Patterson gives an overview of the strategies he’s developed during his mock drafting: http://www.rotosavants.com/2008/11/2009-draft-theories.html

Slow Twitter Mock Draft on CrookedPitch – I’ve talked about this article before. This is the most informative mock draft I’ve seen: http://www.crookedpitch.com/542/were-slow-mocking-over-here/

Overrated Players from Razzball - These are potential draft pitfalls to keep in mind:
http://razzball.com/category/overrated-for-2009-fantasy-baseball/

Sleepers from Razzball - And, from the same blog, sleepers to target this year: http://razzball.com/category/2009-sleepers/

Who’s Closing - There are various good resources for this, but it’s something you need to have a good grasp on when you start drafting. Most of us look for cheap saves, which means taking some risks. I like this report: http://www.fantasysportsempires.com/2009%20Closer%20Report.htm

For those who really want to dominate you should purchase a draft kit. We’ve already talked about VideoDraftKit.com, which is the coolest draft kit out there. For more traditional draft kits we like RotoWire’s offering the best. If you’ve got the money, go for the Cadillac of draft kits and fantasy baseball advice offered at BaseballHQ.com.

Good luck in your drafts!

This is hands down the coolest idea for a draft kit on the market.  www.VideoDraftKit.com is a premium site that pays experts to record their mock drafts and then explain their picks, thoughts, and strategies while they draft.  The main video producer for this season’s draft kit is Troy Patterson of www.RotoSavants.com, which is a blog we’ve talked about quite a bit on this site.  The cost of the draft kit is $24.95, which is a bargain for a video-based product like this.

The videos normally focus on a specific subject.  In their premium section the currently have videos on drafting closers, drafting from the 12th position, drafting from the 1st position, overall middle rounds draft analysis, and more.  There are 10 total videos at the time of this writing and they add 1-2 new videos each week.  They say the aim is for 25 videos before the season starts.  That would be over eight hours of watching draft-based videos.  If you’re not ready to dominate your drafts after that then you never will be.

I’m excited to see products like this coming into the fantasy realm.  Fantasy sports are really on the map now.  This particular product is very similar to the poker training sites, such as CardRunners and Daniel Negreanu’s VT poker, which are wildly successful.  The poker sites are much more expensive but also cover a much broader scope.  VideoDraftKit.com just covers the draft, and they cover pretty much every nook and cranny.  We definitely recommend plopping down the $25 and checking it out.

Video Draft Kit

The Nationals? Really?

We all know this is a downgrade in Dunn’s fantasy status, but how significant?  I did a mock draft today and he fell all the way to round 7, pick 9 in a 12 man league!  That’s nearly two rounds lower than his ADP, which apparently is going to drop like an anvil.  I hope this overreaction continues when I start my real drafts because it just doesn’t make sense.  He’s going to get about 40 HRs in just about any field in baseball.  He’s also going to strike out and kill your average.  RBI’s will dip a bit, but Washington’s lineup is young and fairly talented.  He’s really one of the most simple and predictable players in fantasy.  If you liked him/disliked him before you should feel about the same now.

I’m not the only one that thinks this.  Razzball and FantasyBaseball365 pretty much feel the same.  Here are those articles:

http://razzball.com/nats-finally-sign-a-one-tool-outfielder/>http://razzball.com/nats-finally-sign-a-one-tool-outfielder/
http://fantasybaseball365.com/2009/02/fantasy-impact-dunn-and-abreu-sign.html

Be sure to make it all the way to the bottom of the Razzball article.  I lolled at the before and after Nick Johnson pics.

To be fair, I must also link to the detractors.  The article below actually did some research, and as it turns out Dunn hit 9 “just enough” HR’s that may not have cleared the fence in Washington.

http://www.fantasyplayers.com/mlb/FeedItem.asp?FEED_ITEM_ID=63399

All things considered, I think Dunn can will himself to 37-40 HRs.  If you find yourself in need of power in mid-late round 6 Dunn is still your guy.

This is brilliant stuff here that you should not miss.  A bunch of experts are doing a Mock Draft through Twitter.  Knox at CrookedPitch is organizing it all.  Each pick comes with comments from the drafters.  They are up to round 10 and still going at the time of this post.  It’s difficult to find all the posts on Crooked Pitch so I’ll list them for you here.  Each Round is included in a different post:

Round One: http://www.crookedpitch.com/542/were-slow-mocking-over-here/
Round Two: http://www.crookedpitch.com/556/slow-mock-round-two/
Round Three: http://www.crookedpitch.com/556/slow-mock-round-three/
Round Four: http://www.crookedpitch.com/556/slow-mock-round-four/
Round Five: http://www.crookedpitch.com/556/slow-mock-round-five/
Round Six: http://www.crookedpitch.com/556/slow-mock-round-six/
Round Seven: http://www.crookedpitch.com/556/slow-mock-round-seven/
Round Eight: http://www.crookedpitch.com/556/slow-mock-round-Eight/
Round Nine: http://www.crookedpitch.com/556/slow-mock-round-nine/
Round Ten: http://www.crookedpitch.com/556/slow-mock-round-ten/

CrookedPitch.com is an impressive fantasy baseball blog that you might not have heard of yet.  I say yet because with his great content and constant Twitter updates I think he’s doing an incredible job of getting his name out there.  CrookedPitch is currently focused on a Mock Draft that he is doing with some other fantasy experts on Twitter.  He has posted rankings for C, 1B, 2B, and SS.  He ranks a ton of guys at each position and gives a description for each.

CrookedPitch.com includes 32 players on their Catchers rankings list.  He’s got Russell Martin at the top of the list for his ability to produce in all five categories, which is a little bit off the beaten McCann #1 path.  Doumit comes in at 5 with a chance to enter the elite catcher ranks this year.  I’m a huge Doumit believer so it’s nice to see him getting this kind of love.  He’s got Weiters waaaay down the list at 23 overall.  I don’t like this ranking because Weiters should be one of the top 15 catchers taken just for his upside.  Posada is knocked down to 19th on this list.  Here’s what CP has to say “Posada is 37-years-old and coming off of a major medical procedure that kills most hitters power potential. With recent additions to the team he won’t be given many opportunities to DH either. Posada is a risky pick for 2009.”  Very good stuff, here’s the link to the rest of his catcher analysis.

CP’s first basemen rankings are very interesting.  He’s got Pujols at one (standard).  Most rankers put Cabrera in the next spot, but Miggy drops all the way to five here.  Howard, Berkman, and Teixera are all in front of him.  This is the highest I’ve seen Berkman – most ppl are bringing him down due to his weak second half last year, but CP makes a good point that you really can’t deny the awesome numbers he posted.  He’s got Fielder at 9 and says he’s being overvalued in drafts again this year.  Those of you  burned by him last season probably arent touching him with a ten foot pole this time around, and that could be a good move.  He’s got Pena above Votto, a move I would not advise making on draft day.  I’m going with the .300 upside of Votto, not the .250 reality Pena.  If Votto continues his second half tear he will easily approach Pena’s power numbers.

CP is advising to go ahead and take Utley as the first overall second baseman – advice that is hard to turn down.  He is not as high on Kinsler, noting that he’s never played more than 130 games in a season.  Pedroia got the nod as the second 2B.  Kendrick and Matsui are both getting love as some solid sleepers who just need to stay healthy to reach top 10 status.  I’m targeting both of these guys as they fall in drafts as potential trade bait or just solid depth at a very shallow position.  After you get past Uggla and maybe Cano at the seventh spot the list of remaining 2B’s is like a train wreck.

What to do with Rafael Furcal at shortstop this season?  CP says take him seventh, right after Peralta, and be ready for the downside.  I’m tempted to gamble on him a little bit earlier last season based on my fond memories of his ridiculous start last year.  I’m not afraid to make that reach, but I do believe I would take Ramirez ahead of Furcal.  He makes an interesting argument that Stephen Drew at 4 is really not that far behind Jimmy Rollins.

I suspect CP will be finishing up this rankings list soon – probably as soon as the Twitter “Slow Mock Draft” is finished.  He has all of his rankings listed under “Pages” in his middle column.  Enjoy!

FantasyTwits.com is a brand new site that interfaces with Twitter to categorize and display Tweets from fantasy experts.  For those of you not familiar with Twitter, it’s time to come out from under your rock.  Twitter is the Google of Microblogging.  You’ll find everything from people discussing fantasy baseball trades to people who just like to post when they are going to the bathroom.  Each “Tweet” can have a max of 140 characters, hence the term Microblogging.

FantasyTwits is currently “following” fourteen experts.  That means they found fourteen guys who like to talk about fantasy baseball on Twitter.  Most of them represent major sites or blogs.  The experts know each other, probably because of the status they’ve attained on Twitter.  They often “Tweet at each other,” which is having a conversation through Twitter microblogs.  Today @crookedpitch and @fakebaseball are having an interesting conversation on Adam Dunn vs. Chris Davis.  You could follow this conversation without FantasyTwits.com if you followed both of these guys on Twitter, but that is not nearly as convenient as what FantasyTwits offers.  Basically, they do the filtering for you.

They also have a tagging system to track which players are being talked about the most.  This is the same idea used on the popular StockTwits.com.  You can tag players in your twitter posts by using # followed by the first two letters in his team’s abbreviation, then followed by the first two letters in his first and last name.  It seems complicated, but it really isn’t.  For example, you can tag Mewelde Moore in your Tweets by typing #pimemo.  Peyton Manning would be #inpema.  Their hope is that people discussing fantasy sports will start using the tagging system.  It would be very cool if this system does get adopted by all the experts, but that may be a longshot.

Even if no one tags their Tweets in real time the tagging system can still be implemented on the FantasyTwits site.  On each Tweet there is a “Tag this Tweet” button that anyone logged in can use to tag Tweets to players.  This system will be maintained by the sites members.  So, if you see a post untagged, do your good deed for the day and tag it to a player.

Twitter is growing quickly.  Sites like FantasyTwits are also starting to spring up.  Everybody and their brother may be finding something they like on Twitter soon.  Check the site out to see how the online phenom that is Twitter can help out your fantasy game.

Going into a draft a familiarity with Average Draft Position (ADP) is critical to success in any fantasy sport, but especially in fantasy baseball.  The myriad of positions, size of the rosters, and the need to draft both a pitching and hitting team leads to more draft nuances than you find in fantasy football.  Not only do you need to know who you are targeting, but you also need to know how long you can wait before you take the guys you are targetting.  ADP mistakes are the most egregious and costly mistakes that unprepared drafters make.

The best place to find ADP this early in the fantasy baseball season is MockDraftCentral.com.  With a free account you can access their top 75 ADP.  With a premium account you can access their entire ADP.  The chart at the bottom of this article is part of their free offering, the top 70 in their ADP list.  It shows both the earliest the player has been taken and the latest.  A player taken much higher than his ADP suggests bad value because that player most likely could have been acquired later.  A player taken far after their ADP implies strong value.

We can see some direct examples of the kind of egregious errors I’m talking about in the chart below.  Take a look at Alfonso Soriano.  Someone drafting 6th used their first round pick to get Soriano.  This person had the 6th, 19th, and 30th picks.  Soriano’s ADP is 23.64, making him the 22nd player off the board on average.  That gives someone drafting 19th a very strong chance to get him.  This drafter could have used his first pick on a Grady Sizemore or Miguel Cabrera and then taken Soriano in round 2.  Sizemore and Soriano would have been a nice top two.  Instead, this player is looking at Soriano and Justin Morneau (19 ADP).

Seasoned players are going to avoid such egregious ADP errors, but they do need to consider probabilities based on ADP with every pick.  As you can see from the degree of difference in the “Latest” column compared to actual ADP, players often fall significantly further than expected.  Also, Position Runs and tendencies of your opponents can really shake up ADP in any individual draft.  Each drafter should keep all of this in mind as they determine how likely it is a player they are targeting will still be available at their next pick.  You can never be sure your guy will still be around, but it is often worth the risk to wait.  The draft is the single most important day in your season so you have to maximize each pick as best you can.  Study all the ADP charts as they are released and you will have a leg up on the competition come draft day.

From MockDraftCentral.com:

	Player	Pos	Team	ADP	Earliest	Latest	Draft %
1)	Hanley Ramirez	SS	FLA	1.35	1	4	100.0% 582 / 582
2)	Alex Rodriguez	3B	NYY	2.11	1	5	100.0% 582 / 582
3)	Albert Pujols	1B	STL	3.07	1	7	100.0% 582 / 582
4)	David Wright	3B	NYM	4.42	1	7	100.0% 582 / 582
5)	Jose Reyes	SS	NYM	4.62	2	10	100.0% 582 / 582
6)	Grady Sizemore	OF	CLE	6.63	3	14	100.0% 582 / 582
7)	Miguel Cabrera	1B	DET	7.22	4	16	100.0% 582 / 582
	Jimmy Rollins	SS	PHI	9.46	6	18	100.0% 582 / 582
9)	Josh Hamilton	OF	TEX	10.51	4	19	100.0% 582 / 582
10)	Ryan Braun	OF	MIL	10.76	4	19	100.0% 582 / 582
11)	Ian Kinsler	2B	TEX	11.10	6	20	100.0% 582 / 582
12)	Ryan Howard	1B	PHI	11.52	3	20	100.0% 582 / 582
13)	Matt Holliday	OF	OAK	12.66	6	21	100.0% 582 / 582
14)	Mark Teixeira	1B	NYY	13.42	5	20	100.0% 582 / 582
15)	Lance Berkman	1B	HOU	15.55	10	26	100.0% 582 / 582
16)	Johan Santana	SP	NYM	18.75	7	33	100.0% 582 / 582
17)	B.J. Upton	OF	TB	19.31	12	38	100.0% 582 / 582
18)	Chase Utley	2B	PHI	19.67	6	33	100.0% 582 / 582
19)	Justin Morneau	1B	MIN	19.98	13	39	100.0% 582 / 582
20)	Evan Longoria	3B	TB	20.01	10	32	100.0% 582 / 582
21)	Manny Ramirez	OF	LA	20.93	10	36	100.0% 582 / 582
22)	Alfonso Soriano	OF	CHC	23.64	6	37	100.0% 582 / 582
23)	Carlos Beltran	OF	NYM	24.13	13	36	100.0% 582 / 582
24)	Prince Fielder	1B	MIL	24.26	13	38	100.0% 582 / 582
25)	Ichiro Suzuki	OF	SEA	25.10	14	48	100.0% 582 / 582
26)	Carlos Lee	OF	HOU	26.38	11	41	100.0% 582 / 582
27)	Dustin Pedroia	2B	BOS	26.91	10	42	100.0% 582 / 582
28)	Tim Lincecum	SP	SF	27.40	10	62	100.0% 582 / 582
29)	Carl Crawford	OF	TB	28.29	16	54	100.0% 582 / 582
30)	Brandon Phillips	2B	CIN	29.07	15	55	100.0% 582 / 582
31)	Aramis Ramirez	3B	CHC	31.03	16	50	100.0% 582 / 582
32)	CC Sabathia	SP	NYY	34.18	17	47	100.0% 582 / 582
33)	Jason Bay	OF	BOS	34.54	23	51	100.0% 582 / 582
34)	Nick Markakis	OF	BAL	34.67	23	57	100.0% 582 / 582
35)	Adrian Gonzalez	1B	SD	35.31	23	53	100.0% 582 / 582
36)	Carlos Quentin	OF	CHW	37.30	21	56	100.0% 582 / 582
37)	Brian Roberts	2B	BAL	38.11	27	58	100.0% 582 / 582
38)	Kevin Youkilis	1B,3B	BOS	38.34	22	57	100.0% 582 / 582
39)	Alex Rios	OF	TOR	39.69	26	60	100.0% 582 / 582
40)	Vladimir Guerrero	OF	ANA	40.55	25	59	100.0% 582 / 582
41)	Matt Kemp	OF	LA	40.90	24	58	100.0% 582 / 582
42)	Cole Hamels	SP	PHI	41.21	26	60	100.0% 582 / 582
43)	Russell Martin	C	LA	43.63	26	68	100.0% 582 / 582
44)	Jake Peavy	SP	SD	44.60	29	62	100.0% 582 / 582
45)	Brandon Webb	SP	ARI	46.15	26	63	100.0% 582 / 582
46)	Brian McCann	C	ATL	47.74	25	63	100.0% 582 / 582
47)	Roy Halladay	SP	TOR	48.11	25	94	100.0% 582 / 582
48)	Curtis Granderson	OF	DET	49.40	29	78	100.0% 582 / 582
49)	Chipper Jones	3B	ATL	50.53	32	71	100.0% 582 / 582
50)	David Ortiz	DH	BOS	50.97	32	200	100.0% 582 / 582
51)	Shane Victorino	OF	PHI	51.17	32	90	100.0% 582 / 582
52)	Alexei Ramirez	2B	CHW	51.51	29	69	100.0% 582 / 582
53)	Joe Mauer	C	MIN	52.53	31	76	100.0% 582 / 582
54)	Jonathan Papelbon	RP	BOS	54.81	34	85	100.0% 582 / 582
55)	Corey Hart	OF	MIL	55.69	41	99	100.0% 582 / 582
56)	Dan Haren	SP	ARI	57.55	39	72	100.0% 582 / 582
57)	Nate McLouth	OF	PIT	59.24	31	104	100.0% 582 / 582
58)	Brad Lidge	RP	PHI	61.37	46	94	100.0% 582 / 582
59)	Rafael Furcal	SS	LA	62.30	37	94	100.0% 582 / 582
60)	Magglio Ordonez	OF	DET	62.59	38	96	100.0% 582 / 582
61)	Bobby Abreu	OF	NYY	62.91	36	100	100.0% 582 / 582
62)	Adam Dunn	OF	ARI	62.99	42	100	100.0% 582 / 582
63)	Jacoby Ellsbury	OF	BOS	63.10	39	99	100.0% 582 / 582
64)	Dan Uggla	2B	FLA	63.17	29	106	100.0% 582 / 582
65)	Carlos Pena	1B	TB	65.10	39	119	100.0% 582 / 582
66)	Geovany Soto	C	CHC	66.48	38	94	100.0% 582 / 582
67)	Cliff Lee	SP	CLE	67.78	41	118	100.0% 582 / 582
68)	Derrek Lee	1B	CHC	72.04	40	109	100.0% 582 / 582
69)	Garrett Atkins	3B,1B	COL	72.18	46	108	100.0% 582 / 582
70)	Josh Beckett	SP	BOS	72.44	47	100	100.0%